Is Gen Z Backed Balen Shah the Next Prime Minister of Nepal?
Nepal’s political landscape is witnessing a dramatic shake up as early results from the 2026 parliamentary elections show Balendra Balen Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party racing ahead of its rivals. Riding a wave of support from younger voters and the momentum of last year’s Gen Z led protests, the three year old party is dominating early vote counts across the Himalayan nation, putting it firmly on course for a stunning electoral breakthrough.
As counting continues, the RSP is leading in more than 100 constituencies, leaving traditional heavyweights like the Nepali Congress and the CPN UML struggling to keep pace. In one of the most closely watched contests, Balen Shah has opened a commanding lead over former prime minister KP Sharma Oli in Jhapa 5, a development that signals a possible turning point in Nepal’s political history.
RSP Leading In Over 100 Constituencies
According to the latest trends reported by The Kathmandu Post, the Rastriya Swatantra Party is leading in around 106 constituencies out of the 165 seats being contested through direct elections in Nepal’s House of Representatives. The current tally based on early vote counting stands as follows:
- Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP): 106
- Nepali Congress: 11
- Nepali Communist Party: 9
- CPN-UML: 10
- Others: 6
The strong performance by the three-year-old party reflects growing public support for new political leadership following widespread protests in Nepal last year.
Balen Shah Extends Lead Over KP Sharma Oli
Balendra Shah, the former mayor of Kathmandu and the face of the RSP, is maintaining a comfortable lead over former prime minister KP Sharma Oli in the high-profile Jhapa-5 constituency.
According to the latest vote count, Shah has secured more than 6,500 votes, widening the gap with Oli. Jhapa has long been considered a political stronghold of the veteran leader, making Shah’s lead particularly significant.
If the trend continues, it would mark a major setback for Oli and his CPN-UML party.
Shishir Khanal Wins Kathmandu-6 Seat
RSP candidate Shishir Khanal has been elected from Kathmandu Constituency No. 6, securing his second term in Nepal’s parliament.
Khanal received 27,719 votes, comfortably defeating Nepali Congress candidate Krishna Baniya Chhetri, who secured 6,647 votes. The CPN-UML candidate Aman Kumar Maskey finished third with 4,373 votes.
The victory further strengthens the RSP’s dominance in the Kathmandu Valley.
Ranju Neupane Secures First Seat For RSP
Earlier in the day, Ranju Neupane (also known as Ranju Darshana) became the first candidate from the Rastriya Swatantra Party to win a seat in the election.
She secured victory in Kathmandu-1, defeating Nepali Congress candidate Prabal Thapa by a comfortable margin. Neupane is a well-known youth activist and previously contested the Kathmandu mayoral election.
Her victory is seen as a symbolic moment for the party, highlighting the growing influence of younger leaders in Nepal’s politics.
Ballot Transportation Delayed In Mountain Districts
Meanwhile, election authorities reported logistical challenges in several mountainous regions. Ballot papers are yet to be transported to counting centres in Sankhuwasabha, Dolpa and Gorkha due to adverse weather conditions.
Kul Bahadur GC, assistant spokesperson for the Election Commission, said attempts to transport the ballots by helicopter were delayed because of poor weather. Counting in these districts will begin once the ballot boxes arrive.
How Nepal’s Parliamentary System Works
Nepal’s House of Representatives has 275 members. Out of these:
- 165 lawmakers are directly elected through the first-past-the-post system.
- 110 members are selected through proportional representation based on party vote share.
To form a government, a party or coalition must secure at least 138 seats in the lower house.
With the RSP currently leading in a majority of constituencies, Balendra Shah could emerge as a strong contender for the post of Nepal’s next prime minister if the party manages to maintain its momentum as counting continues.
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