Gold Price Drops Amid Israel-Iran Tensions; Experts Suggest Buy on Dips
Gold price today witnessed a significant dip in domestic futures markets, even as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared up dramatically. On Friday, June 20, MCX Gold August 5 contracts traded 0.66% lower at ₹98,670 per 10 grams around 2:20 PM, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment in a volatile global environment.
Despite the worsening Israel-Iran conflict, which typically drives demand for safe-haven assets like gold, prices have softened due to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve. Investors are carefully watching interest rate signals and inflation outlooks, leading to a mixed sentiment in the precious metals market.
Middle East Crisis Escalates: Gold Fails to Rally
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its second week with alarming intensity. Media reports suggest that Israel bombed nuclear facilities in Iran on Thursday, prompting retaliatory missile strikes that targeted an Israeli hospital. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged further retaliation, amplifying concerns of a wider regional war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the intent is not to topple Iran’s regime, though he acknowledged that could become a consequence of the conflict. As global fears grow over a potential broader crisis involving the US and its allies, gold markets are watching closely for signs of deeper financial contagion.
Yet, gold has failed to see a sustained rally. Market experts point to competing economic forces — particularly the US Federal Reserve’s cautious tone — as a reason for this disconnect.
Federal Reserve Outlook Offsets Safe-Haven Demand
While geopolitical uncertainty often boosts gold prices, the US Fed’s aggressive anti-inflation messaging appears to be putting downward pressure on bullion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that inflation may rise in the coming months due to the effect of tariffs under President Trump’s administration. This has delayed hopes for near-term interest rate cuts.
On June 19, the dollar index slipped by 0.40%, offering temporary support to gold. However, rising inflation expectations are deterring long-term investors, as gold does not offer yield income.
“Gold prices remain sluggish, as concerns over persistent inflation, signaled by the US Federal Reserve, have overshadowed the usual safe-haven appeal during global crises,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures.
She noted that while gold surged earlier in 2025, current market sentiment is shifting toward alternative haven assets like silver and platinum. “Only a major escalation in the West Asia conflict could push gold higher from here,” she added.
Gold Price Today: Expert Strategies for MCX Traders
Despite the softness in prices, experts advise that MCX traders adopt a tactical “buy on dips” approach.
Manoj Kumar Jain’s MCX Strategy
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research believes that gold prices are likely to remain volatile. He suggests buying near the ₹98,800 level with a stop loss at ₹98,400 and a target of ₹99,500.
MCX Gold Support: ₹98,800–98,550
MCX Gold Resistance: ₹98,660–99,000
Silver Support: ₹1,06,500–1,05,750
Silver Resistance: ₹1,08,200–1,09,000
Jain also mentioned that in international markets, gold has support at $3,366–3,330 per troy ounce and resistance at $3,404–3,427, while silver has support at $36.00–35.55 and resistance at $36.70–37.15.
Rahul Kalantri’s Price Outlook
Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities, echoed similar views. He highlighted strong support and resistance zones both in international and INR terms.
Gold (USD) Support: $3,340–3,315
Gold (USD) Resistance: $3,380–3,400
Silver (USD) Support: $35.75–35.50
Silver (USD) Resistance: $36.35–36.55
Gold (INR) Support: ₹98,750–98,550
Gold (INR) Resistance: ₹99,550–99,740
Silver (INR) Support: ₹1,06,380–1,05,500
Silver (INR) Resistance: ₹1,08,350–1,09,000
Conclusion: Watch Geopolitics, Fed Policy, and Market Sentiment
The gold price today reflects a balancing act between rising geopolitical tensions and domestic monetary policy concerns. While escalating conflict in the Middle East typically supports gold, signals of sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed have capped gains for now.
Traders should keep a close eye on the Israel-Iran situation, as any sharp escalation could instantly boost safe-haven demand. At the same time, shifting expectations around US interest rates and inflation will continue to dictate the short-term direction of gold on the MCX.
With expert recommendations pointing toward strategic buying near support levels, investors may find opportunities in the current dip — but should remain cautious and reactive to rapidly changing global headlines.
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